Analysis: Canada Express Entry CRS scores sets to drop in late 2018

Express Entry

There are 1000 of people who are waiting for CRS scores in Express Entry to drop. What drives them is the fact that in 2017 multiple times the score drop to rock bottom. However, 2018 has been a different story given the fact that even after 9 months, the lowest score is still 440. So the big question is why the hell score is not coming down like 2017 and whether it will come down in future. In short, yes it will come down, but lets get into the details first.

2017 the golden year

Ever since Express Entry started in 2015 the scores remained above 450 level throughout 2015 and 2016, however in 2017 the score drop to lowest ever level of 413. So how did this happen?

Increase in invites issued from previous years

Firstly, lets look at the number of invites issued over the year. In 2015 and 2016, the number of invites issued were only about 1500 in each draw. However, towards end of 2016 the invite number per draw started going up gradually from 1500 -> 2000 -> 2400 -> 2800. See the data from 2016 draw below.

This trend continued into 2017 and invites per draw increased from 2800 -> 3300 -> 3500 -> 3600 -> 3800 -> 3900. To this day 3900 is the highest number of invites issued in a single draw. As you can see in the below data, the score started to drop when the invites increased before hitting lowest score of 415 and 413.

Irregular draws and short time period between draws

Another major reason why the score drop in 2017 was the irregular draw patterns followed. Sometimes the gap between two draws were as short 7 days, while at time it has gone as high as 28 days. If you look closely at below a table you can see the score drop when the gap between draws is smaller and it increase when it is higher. However, you should also look into number of invites issued as higher gaps + large number of invites could also bring down the score. In short, it is the combined effect of shorter gaps between draws and no: of invites influence the CRS score.

The lasting effect

The lasting effect is something related to higher number of invites. Even after issuing higher number of invites sometimes the score won’t come down. However, if you look closely, the score tend to have a lasting effect based on previous high number of invites. In other words, when ever higher number of invites are issue continuously for 3 or more draws, the score in future draw will be lower. This is because a large amount of people got out of the pool with higher invites in previous draw.

This can be seen in below table. From January to May the number of invites remains the highest, however the score drop only in April and stayed the lowest till May end.

Why the score has not drop like 2017 this year?

September is almost over and the lowest score yet so far is 440. Due to higher number of people applying for Express Entry we can’t expect the score to hit below 430 like last year. However, the score should come down below 440 levels. Firstly lets look at some reasons why the score is steady this year.

More people applying for express entry

Before 2017, it was impossible for most to get an invite in Express Entry due the fact that the minimum score required is above 450 or 480. However, this changed in 2017 and obviously the word is out. In other words, the lower score in 2017 has motivated many to apply for express entry to an extend where double number of invites are not bring down the score.

Standardized draw with regular gap and controlled invites 

Instead of irregular draws last year, the draws this year more consistent with regular gap. There is also trend where the no: of invites are controlled to ensure the score won’t drop below 440. You can see this in many instance they are trying to keep the minimum score above 440 throughout the year.

Lower number of invites per draw

While last year we saw record number of invites issue per draw, this year started off by just 2750 invites. This is one of the prime reasons why the score has not come down. However, this trend is reversing and more invites are issued in every draw now.

Will the score come down any further this year?

To date, 54,700 ITAs were issued over 17 draws in 2018, which puts it slightly ahead of the 54,487 ITAs that were issued over the first 17 draws of 2017. However, 60,742 ITAs were issued in 2017 by this same point in August, which in that sense puts 6,042 ITAs behind last year’s pace. There is also the fact that Canada’s admission targets for 2018 and 2019 will be higher than 2017, therefore it they are way behind the target and this could lead to higher invites and more frequent draws this year. A hypothetical graph I found on another website is shown below.

In conclusion, there is a good chance the score will come down further next few months and into early 2019 to meet the increased targets for Express Entry.